Brian Neben, Central Nebraska Today
KEARNEY — The ongoing mild and quiet weather conditions will last through Wednesday, there could be potential impacts on Christmas holiday travel with a stronger storm system seemingly in the works.
Quiet conditions are in place across the National Weather Service – Hasting’s coverage area as northwest flow is in place aloft, with a low-pressure trough to the east and an incoming high-pressure ridge to the west.
“At the surface, the forecast area sits north of the main cold front, keeping winds northerly. Surface high pressure is starting to build further into the area, so speeds have been tapering off with time, but speeds at times in eastern areas are still in the 15-20 mph range,” per an NWS Hastings forecast discussion.
There looks to be better chances for breezy and gusty winds out of the south-southwest on Tuesday as a tighter surface pressure gradient develops between the gradually departing high pressure area to our east and a new strengthening low pressure area over the High Plains.
“The more southerly low-level flow and expected warmer air mass building back into the area will help highs for Tuesday rebound back into the 50s for much of the area,” NWS Hastings stated.
Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 40s and mid-50s. Winds will die down as a weak surface trough axis will slide to the east of the area and helps to diminish wind speeds.
There is some uncertainty in the Thursday to Friday timeframe, as precipitation chances could make a return.
The main upper-level low pressure area parked over the southern California coast will begin its eastward push by Friday.
“Our weather will be driven by whether any shortwave disturbances ejected out ahead of the main upper low trek through the forecast area and at this point there isn`t a ton of confidence in seeing measurable precipitation through Friday,” NWS Hastings stated.
Current model forecasts have a 20 percent chance of precipitation starting Thursday into the evening, mainly along and south of the line from York to Phillipsburg, Kan. If precipitation does manage to materialize, it will likely fall as rain.
A more impactful weather system is not out of the question as the calendar nears the upcoming holiday travel weekend and Christmas Day.
Models show the stronger upper-level low pressure area along the Arizona and Mexico border, continuing to slide east into Saturday. However, another system looks to slide through the Pacific Northwest around the same time.
The models show these two systems phasing together while pushing through the Rockies. The uncertainties and differences arise with the timing, location, strength of the system that emerges as we get into Sunday, Christmas Eve and Monday, Christmas Day.
“Larger scale lift looks to increase across the region on Saturday ahead of the main system and during the day have 20-30 percent chances of precipitation spreading from south to north,” NWS Hastings notes.
“Those chances increase through Saturday night into the 50-60 percent range as one wave of energy with the system swings north-northeast through the Central Plains and those chances continue through the day on Christmas Eve, then gradually diminish as we go into Christmas Day,” NWS Hastings states.
Models have hinted at widespread 60 to 80 percent probabilities of 0.1 inches or more of rain, and even fairly widespread 30 to 50 percent probabilities of 0.5 inches or more.
“There are some notable differences with the track, timing and strength of the system, which trickles down to the finer details with the timing of colder air, any switch to snow, winds, etc. being greatly affected. Lot of things to iron out in the coming days, but those with travel plans Saturday-Monday will want to keep a close eye on how things trend with this system,” NWS Hastings notes.
