Early October sunset in Buffalo County, (Brian Neben, Central Nebraska Today)
HASTINGS — Fire weather concerns will be present mid-week ahead of a cold front that is set to arrive Friday and bring the first precipitation chances in over a month to the local area.
After a cool start to the week that saw frost and freeze warnings issued, Tuesday will remain chilly as highs will be only in the 50s, which mark the first sub-60-degree highs since late April, according to the National Weather Service – Hastings.
Seasonably strong surface high pressure will remain over the area and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks to be the coldest evening of the week. Lows could be around 25-30 degrees.
The high-pressure axis will shift east on Wednesday and steadily give way to an increasing pressure gradient ahead of the next low-pressure trough that will move into the Intermountain West.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the trough, and this will increase the fire weather concerns as winds could be 20-25 mph sustained and gusts up to 35-40 mph.
Thursday and Friday look to be the main days for fire weather concern, due to the high winds and dry fuels that have not seen precipitation for several weeks.
Models are showing a variety of outcomes regarding the upper-level trough, with some showing it progressing eastward, while others show a closed low forming over the Four Corners region before eventually ejecting northeastward.
The highest precipitation probabilities will be Friday afternoon into the evening, there could even be a few strong storms ahead of the front around peak heating. However, moisture return looks weak, and instability will be too marginal to fully support severe storms.
Forecast details in the day six-to-eight-time frame remain murky, at best, given the above mentioned model trends, but overall, would expect seasonably mild temperatures, lighter winds, and generally pleasant conditions outside of any rain chances Sunday into Monday,” per NWS Hastings.
