KEARNEY — NOAA issued their Winter Outlook for the United States on Thursday, Oct. 19.
Seasonal temperatures across Nebraska are expected to be average, precipitation will be wetter than average and drought conditions are likely to persist.
“This year, El Nino is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving the outlook for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service,” the Climate Prediction Center stated.
“These outlooks provide critical guidance on the upcoming season for many industries and sectors of our economy, from energy producers to commodities markets to agricultural interests to tourism,” said Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., NOAA chief scientist. “With a strengthening El Nino and more potential climate extremes in an already record-breaking year, we’re lucky to have scientists like those at the Climate Prediction Center helping to build a Weather and Climate-Ready Nation by providing critical operational seasonal climate predictions.”
Speaking to the weather extremes so far this year, Tom Di Liberto, climate scientist with NOAA said there have been $24 billion disasters so far this year, with the remainder of October, November and December to go.
“From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes,” the Climate Prediction Center stated.
“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
Gottschalck said there is a 75 to 85 percent chance of El Nino strengthening this winter.
NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted through the southern and central U.S. and worsening drought in Hawaii.
“According to the Oct. 17 U.S. Drought Monitor, a third of the country, including Puerto Rico, is in drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “During late October, heavy precipitation is likely to result in drought improvement for the central U.S. El Nino with its enhanced precipitation is expected to provide drought relief to the southern U.S. during the next few months.”
For most of south-central Nebraska, drought is likely to persist, said Pugh.
When asked if drought conditions could worsen, Pugh said if average precipitation is lower, then drought conditions could worsen. However, persistence is the most likely at this moment given the overall drier climatology.
Per the U.S. Drought Monitor, exceptional drought, D4, conditions continue to linger east of the Tri-Cities. This most extreme condition continues to cover 4.65 percent of the state.
“Much of northern Nebraska received at least 2 inches of precipitation, with some areas reporting more than seven inches this week,” the Drought Monitor stated, “Board 1-category improvements were made across northern Nebraska, while 2-category improvements were made where historic rainfall was reported.”
Temperature
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West.
- Remaining areas fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
The 2023-2024 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions are in the northern tier of the continental United States. (NOAA, Courtesy)
Precipitation
- Much of the central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
The 2023-2024 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the South and Southeast and parts of California and Nevada. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the northern tier of the United States. (NOAA, Courtesy)
Drought
- Widespread extreme to exceptional drought continues to persist across much of the South, and portions of the central U.S.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist for the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and portions of the desert Southwest this winter.
Drought is likely to persist in portions of the desert Southwest, in parts of the Pacific Northwest eastward along the northern tier to the Great Lakes, and across Hawaii. (NOAA, Courtesy)
About NOAA’s seasonal outlooks
“NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance,” per the Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 16.
“Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-driven hazards. Empowering people with actionable forecasts, seasonal predictions and winter weather safety tips is key to NOAA’s effort to build a more Weather- and Climate-Ready Nation,” the Climate Prediction Center stated.
